Will Women Catch Up to Their Fertility Expectations?

In 2019, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dipped to 1.71 children per woman, an all-time low and far below replacement rate of 2.10 children. Current levels fertility have important implications for economy. To assess trends, demographers often look at expectations. Using this metric suggests no cause concern. Women in their early 30s today, when first asked about childbearing expectations 20s, expected more than two children, similar previous cohorts. But today’s 30-year-olds are much further from 20-24 And a number trends emerged recent years that could suggest lower fertility. This project aims shed light on whether women likely catch up what factors influence ability do so. The analysis uses regression framework examine drive after age 30 older cohort surveyed NLSY79. results then used predict completed younger NLSY97, who early- mid-30s still years. The paper found that: • primary driver achieved non-college graduates. For college-educated women, other such as religion, marital status, career length affect they achieve NLSY97 (born 1980-1984) projected total 1.96 means gap between 20s will increase 0.48, higher historical averages 0.30. policy findings are: While seem current TFR is capturing tempo effects delayed childbearing, long-run may be several reasons. based 1980-1984 cohort, but cohorts fewer because face economic uncertainty. might also grow since COVID-19 place downward pressure fertility, both studied women. Therefore, while reflect actual especially cohorts, 1.96.